2025 CRE U.S. Housing Market Intelligence Report: An Integrated Analysis of Leading Real Estate Firms’ Insights

The U.S. housing market in 2025 maintains resilience, tempered optimism, and structural recalibration in response to evolving macroeconomic, demographic, and regulatory dynamics. Drawing on recent and comprehensive data and analysis from the top 20 commercial real estate firms—including CBRE, JLL, Cushman & Wakefield, Colliers International, Newmark, Savills, Marcus & Millichap, Eastdil Secured, Walker & Dunlop, Berkadia, Avison Young, NAI Global, Knight Frank, CoStar Group, Real Capital Analytics, Yardi Matrix, Zillow Research, Redfin Research Center, and Green Street Advisors—this report delivers authoritative perspectives across transaction-level data, sector-level trends (multifamily, student housing, and build-to-rent), capital markets, affordability metrics, and the impact of data analytics and advisory services.

Despite geopolitical uncertainty, rising tariffs, and a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, the market has entered a phase marked by stabilizing fundamentals in multifamily and residential segments, measured transaction rebounds, and growing institutional interest in alternatives like build-to-rent and single-family rentals. The report provides broad and nuanced coverage, including in-depth comparisons and summary tables, supported by a rich array of market-leading sources. Experts, investors, and stakeholders will find analysis here that both captures the complexity of the current moment and distills the strategic implications for every segment of the market.

Key Themes and Data Points from Leading U.S. Real Estate Firms (2025)

Analysis of Table

The table above synthesizes transaction data, sector-level metrics, and thematic trends from the top 20 U.S. commercial real estate players. Consistent themes include stabilizing fundamentals in residential and multifamily segments, measured optimism for transaction volume, and sustained growth in alternative residential asset classes. Firms such as CBRE and Cushman & Wakefield confirm robust multifamily absorption rates against a backdrop of declining new supply, translating to tightening conditions and moderate rent growth. Meanwhile, advisory leaders—such as Green Street Advisors and Real Capital Analytics—highlight not only the outperformance of apartments and SFRs, but also the significant role of persistent affordability stressors in keeping renters in place and drawing institutional capital into build-to-rent assets.

Notably, transaction volume and pricing trends are fragmented both sectorally and regionally. For example, Eastdil Secured’s transaction data shows the office market clawing back from a trough, yet still operating far below pre-pandemic benchmarks. In contrast, Walker & Dunlop and Berkadia’s data on BTR and apartment investments reinforce the sector’s attractiveness for yield-oriented and inflation-hedging investors.

1. Macro-Economic Context: Policy, Rates, and the Investment Climate

1.1. Economic Growth and Policy Environment

The U.S. housing market in 2025 is fundamentally shaped by a confluence of slowing GDP growth, high (though stabilizing) long-term interest rates, and pronounced volatility stemming from shifting tariff and trade policies. The CBRE 2025 Midyear Outlook reduces its GDP forecast to 1.5% due to erratic policy and global geopolitical uncertainty; this forecast is broadly echoed in JLL’s global perspective and by U.S. News’ five-year market predictions. Policy shifts, primarily tariffs and fiscal legislation under the Trump administration, are increasing construction costs, temporarily boosting inflation to above 3%, and dampening consumer and business sentiment—even as hard economic data (job growth and consumer spending) remains resilient.

Amid this backdrop, most expert analysis projects that the higher-for-longer environment for mortgage rates (fluctuating around 6.7-7%) will continue to suppress traditional home buying demand, extend the rental lifecycle, and shift capital allocations within both housing and the broader CRE sector.

1.2. Capital Markets and Investment Volumes

Despite the elevated and volatile rate regime, a notable cyclical recovery is unfolding within commercial real estate transaction volumes. JLL reports a 37% year-over-year increase in transaction volume in the Americas for Q1 2025, while CBRE’s data show a projected 10% growth in annual CRE investment volume, albeit still 18% below the pre-pandemic average. Driving much of this surge are large institutional and private fund vehicles, attracted by reset pricing and a strategic pursuit of early-mover advantage, particularly in sectors with robust rent/occupancy profiles such as industrial, living (“beds and sheds”), build-to-rent, and prime multifamily.

Global and U.S. investors are displaying a flight to quality, targeting best-in-class assets in top-tier markets and sectors most insulated from trade and supply chain shocks. Nonetheless, transaction-level data indicate a bifurcated recovery: while flagship office towers and new logistics facilities attract institutional bidders, legacy assets remain illiquid and susceptible to further repricing.

2. Transaction-Level Insights and Sector Analytics

2.1. Office and Commercial Transactions

After several years of tepid performance, 2024-2025 have seen office sales rebound, with Eastdil Secured reporting a 48% year-over-year jump to $8.08 billion in brokered deals—though this figure remains half of the historical 10-year average. JLL and CBRE confirm a moderate pickup in leasing activity, especially for Trophy and Class A assets in gateway metros such as Manhattan, Dallas, and San Francisco. Net absorption remains positive but is forecast to moderate in H2 2025. However, a wide gap persists between prime and non-prime vacancy rates, and valuations for Class B and C office properties have yet to recover meaningfully, in some cases 60% below pre-pandemic levels.

The table below summarizes year-over-year office sector sales/rankings among top brokers, illustrating the sector’s uneven recovery:

Analysis: Office deals are increasingly concentrated among a small number of leading advisory firms, with a surge in institutional activity chasing discounted pricing in best locations. Liquidity is improving for Class A properties, but legacy owner-operators remain cautious or sidelined by higher debt costs, and legacy Class B valuations are severely impaired. The bottom in the office sector appears to be behind us, but experts do not foresee a rapid return to pre-pandemic sales levels.

2.2. Multifamily / Apartment Transactions and Fundamentals

Multifamily remains the bellwether residential sector in 2025, consistently exhibiting strong demand, favorable absorption, and heightened institutional interest. According to CBRE, net multifamily absorption surged 47% year-over-year in Q2 2025—registering a record 188,200 units—and all 69 tracked major markets reported positive absorption. The sector-wide vacancy rate fell to 4.1%, while year-over-year effective rent growth exceeded 1% for the first time in two years. Investment sales volume for multifamily reached $32.9 billion in Q2, up 7.1% YoY.

Cushman & Wakefield similarly report robust demand with 116,000 units absorbed in Q2 2025, new deliveries down 22% YoY, and the construction pipeline—now under 500,000 units—at its lowest since 2016. Owners have prioritized occupancy over rent growth, reflected in annual rent growth decelerating to 1.7% in Q2, amid growing economic uncertainty and softening consumer sentiment. The move towards more defensive leasing strategies has so far succeeded in improving occupancy by 20 basis points YTD.

Berkadia forecasts national apartment occupancy to rise to 94.8% by the end of 2025, with monthly effective rents projected to increase by 2.8% to $1,909. Notably, the pace of new construction is moderating: Q2 marks the first decline in multifamily pipelines in Dallas, New York, and Austin since the post-pandemic construction surge peaked in 2023. Mortgage credit constraints, high building costs, and hesitancy among limited partners are expected to mute new starts through 2027, underpinning a generally supportive environment for further rent recovery.

Table: U.S. Multifamily Market Performance, 2025

Analysis: Multifamily’s recovery in 2025 hinges on sustained renter demand influenced by affordability barriers to homeownership, slowing construction, and the relative income advantage of renting. While the sector has avoided a supply glut, the pace of rent growth is highly sensitive to macroeconomic changes, notably in Sun Belt and Mountain markets with abundant new supply. High-cost, supply-constrained coastal metros like New York and San Francisco have seen a renaissance in occupancy and rent growth. Defensive owner strategies, combined with more modest development pipelines, are setting the stage for longer-term stabilization and steady, if not spectacular, investment returns.

2.3. Student Housing Sector

Student housing is experiencing a muted but genuine rebound after pandemic-era disruptions. Private fixed investment in dormitories edged up by 0.3% in Q2 2025, reaching an annual rate of $3.9 billion—a 2.1% increase from the prior year, as enrollment levels begin to recover. The long-term outlook is affected by demographic headwinds: the college-age cohort’s growth is slowing due to lower post-Great Recession birth rates, with the National Center for Education Statistics projecting just 8% growth in postsecondary enrollment from 2020–2030. Nonetheless, the sector is adapting, with a focus on higher-quality amenities and operational efficiency, targeting positive return expectations as effective in-person learning, and campus life bounce back to pre-pandemic patterns.

Analysis: The student housing recovery underscores the importance of demographic realities and the evolving demand for traditional on-campus experiences. Supply-demand imbalances will be moderate; the sector’s future growth will depend on new amenity packages, alternative funding models, and resilience against fluctuating enrollment trends.

2.4. Build-to-Rent (BTR): The Fastest-Growing Residential Segment

Build-to-rent (BTR), defined as purpose-built and professionally managed single-family and detached rental communities, represents the most dynamic segment across residential real estate. Both institutional capital flows and consumer preference shifts are fueling explosive growth in BTR, with the sector achieving 27–28% year-over-year expansion and $14.8B institutional capital deployed in 2024 alone. BTR assets command premium rents (up to 15–20% over traditional multifamily), enjoy occupancy rates above 97%, longer tenant durations, and lower turnover costs. The sector’s risk-adjusted returns (market-standard IRRs of 15–18% over a 4–5 year hold period) are attracting private funds, sovereign wealth, and REIT players.

Strategically, BTR addresses critical housing supply deficits, especially in the Sun Belt, and is poised to reach $70B in institutional investment by 2025. With modern renters favoring flexibility and space, high-income renters make up a growing share of tenants, fueling further demand for high-quality, amenity-rich, single-family rental communities. The sector is also expanding beyond its Sun Belt heartland to the Midwest, Mountain West, and secondary/tertiary markets, capitalizing on affordability and supply constraints in traditional for-sale housing.

Table: BTR vs. Traditional Multifamily Performance

Analysis: The BTR boom is reshaping both investor strategy and the consumer rental experience. Institutional capital is being rapidly redeployed from weaker sectors (e.g., office, retail) to premium BTR developments, drawn by compelling income stability, amenity-driven tenant retention, and operational scalability. The shifting regulatory and demographic landscape will continue to favor developers and owners who excel at strategic site selection, technology integration, and resident-focused management.

3. Broader U.S. Housing Market Perspectives

3.1. Home Price Trajectories and Supply-Demand Dynamics

Home price growth in 2025 has decelerated from pandemic highs but remains positive, with median prices rising 1% year-over-year to $446,766 according to Redfin. Zillow forecasts national home values to climb at a modest 2.6% pace, while J.P. Morgan expects a 3% increase. Notably, limited inventory—though gradually improving—remains the key constraint, with the number of homes for sale growing +14.7% YOY (Redfin), but still below long-term averages.

Transaction volumes for existing home sales are expected to rise only modestly in 2025; both rapid price increases (seen in select Sun Belt/South markets) and the “lock-in effect” of low-rate mortgages are keeping inventory and mobility well below prior peaks. With over 80% of current U.S. homeowners “out-of-the-money” on mortgage rate refinancing, the move-up and first-time buyer activity remain muted, a trend anticipated to persist absent a sharp decline in interest rates.

Analysis: The new normal in U.S. housing is characterized by slow but steady home price gains anchored by persistent, if gradually waning, supply-side constraints. Many “move-up” owners are disincentivized to sell, while demographic and migration trends—in particular, Sun Belt and suburban population inflows—drive localized outperformance. As affordability issues persist, buyers are increasingly turning to new construction, with builders incentivizing sales via rate buy-downs and upgrades.

3.2. Regional Divergence and Migration Patterns

2025 market data, including Redfin migration analytics, underscore the ongoing regional sorting of the U.S. housing market. Sun Belt, Southeast, and select Southwest markets continue to attract strong net in-migration, both from domestic sources (CA, NY, IL outflows) and new international arrivals. Metros like Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix, and Miami are leading growth, while gateway cities such as New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles witness price moderation or even declines in response to affordability ceilings and sustained outmigration.

Zillow and Redfin both note the spread of “buyers’ markets” into formerly red-hot metros, as increased listings and slower price growth shift negotiation leverage. Meanwhile, Midwestern cities like Milwaukee, Chicago, and Rochester, NY, benefit from renewed interest due to affordability, robust job markets, and improving urban amenities.

4. Capital Markets, Affordability, and the Rent vs. Buy Equation

4.1. Housing Affordability and Ownership Premium

The spread between renting and homeownership has reached historic proportions, with Newmark estimating a $1,210 per month differential—2.8x the long-term average. This gap, sustained for 12 consecutive quarters, reflects not just rapid home price appreciation and high mortgage rates, but also the slower income growth of potential homeowners. As a result, national rent-to-income ratios remain relatively conservative, underpinning durable rental demand and propping up the multifamily market, even as rent growth moderates.

Nationally, the cost advantage of renting versus buying is most pronounced in high-price coastal and urban metros, but even mid-tier markets exhibit a meaningful premium. Renters, according to Zillow’s and Redfin’s analyses, now command more negotiating leverage—especially as multifamily rent concessions have peaked and an influx of new deliveries boosts available inventory. However, as construction tapers and the homeownership premium persists, this window may close in 2026–2027.

Analysis: The rent vs. buy equation in 2025 places a renewed premium on flexibility, liquidity, and lifestyle, with a growing swathe of higher-income, mobile households opting for premium rentals (MF, BTR, SFR). The lock-in effect in the ownership market and demographic changes—more single-person and “rent by choice” households—ensure a robust rental pipeline for the near term. Affordability crises are most acute for first-time buyers, fueling legislative proposals but ultimately deepening the structural demand for professionally managed rental assets.

4.2. Capital Flows and Alternative Investments

Institutional investors, private funds, and global capital continue to reallocate towards residential rental assets, especially BTR, SFR, and prime multifamily, as risk-adjusted returns outstrip traditional CRE sectors. Multiple funds have amassed over $270B in “dry powder” targeting North American commercial and residential real estate, as per Newmark. The relative outperformance of living sectors (“beds and sheds”) is fueled by stable cash flows, inflation hedging, and operational scalability.

Analysis: The expansion of BTR and SFR as core rather than opportunistic portfolio allocations is a defining theme of 2025. Institutional portfolio managers are reducing exposure to challenged office and retail assets and overweighting in rental housing, industrial/logistics, and data centers. This capital rotation is structurally supportive of residential asset valuations across market cycles.

5. Data Analytics, Research Services, and Forecasting Tools

5.1. Real Estate Data Analytics: The Competitive Edge

Data analytics are now central to underwriting, asset management, tenant targeting, and portfolio construction across the real estate value chain. Platforms such as CoStar, Yardi Matrix, Qlik, Sisense, Explo, Domo, and Toucan Toco are enabling practitioners to conduct predictive modeling, real-time vacancy and pricing analytics, AI-powered scenario planning, fraud detection, and narrative-driven decision support.

The convergence of big data, geospatial insights, automated reporting, and interactive visualizations is leveling the playing field: small brokers and regional investors can now access tools and datasets that were once the reserve of major institutions. For major real estate firms, proprietary analytic platforms augment traditional brokerage, investment, and advisory functions, creating a deeper moat against competition.

Analysis: Firms best positioned to outperform in 2025 and beyond are those that embrace the full spectrum of data analytics solutions. Accurate property valuation, risk assessment, operational efficiency, and customer segmentation are increasingly reliant on data science and machine learning. The analytics arms race is as important as geographical scale or balance sheet strength.

5.2. Research & Advisory Services

All top commercial real estate firms now operate robust in-house research and advisory divisions. CBRE Econometric Advisors, JLL Research, Cushman & Wakefield MarketBeats, Real Capital Analytics, Green Street Advisors, and others publish frequent sectoral and macro reports, delivering actionable forecasts, capital flows data, and scenario analysis to clients. The role of research is especially critical in a market marked by policy shocks, interest rate uncertainty, and rapidly changing demographic trends.

Analysis: Frequent, forward-looking research products help institutional and private investors recalibrate strategies, manage risk, and uncover new sources of return. Advisory teams are increasingly called upon not simply to broker transactions, but to provide holistic asset and portfolio-level counsel, integrating live market data, scenario modeling, and policy intelligence.

6. Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations (2025 and Beyond)

6.1. Risks, Headwinds, and Policy Watch

Major risks for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 include further trade and tariff shocks, persistent inflationary pressures, the potential for new regulatory interventions (especially around zoning and multifamily development), and the unpredictable path of global conflicts and supply chain disruptions. Firms like JLL, Savills, and Marcus & Millichap emphasize the need for agility, resilience, and optionality as recurring policy and economic shocks render long-range planning challenging.

Future policies under the Trump administration may affect affordability and supply in complex ways. Proposals to streamline local zoning, loosen federal land for new housing, and restrict multifamily construction in single-family neighborhoods create a policy landscape rife with both risks and “accelerator” opportunities, especially for institutional BTR and SFR developers.

6.2. Opportunities: Where Will Outperformance Emerge?

Outperformance will be most likely in:

• Emerging and secondary markets with strong demographic growth but limited new supply (e.g., Midwest, Mountain West, “next-tier” Sun Belt locations)

• Prime, well-amenitized assets in coastal gateway cities where new supply is severely constrained and affluent renters are seeking flexibility

• Build-to-rent and SFR investment vehicles, benefiting from “rent by choice” higher-income households

• Living and data center sectors, as both demand and investor flows outpace supply

• Investors who move quickly while rate/price volatility compresses yields and supports discounted acquisitions

Firms that integrate the most advanced analytics, maintain disciplined underwriting, and develop deep local market expertise will be best positioned to capture alpha.

Conclusion: Navigating a Complex, Dynamic Housing Market

The U.S. housing market as of mid-2025 presents a bifurcated but resilient landscape in which demand-side fundamentals for multifamily, BTR, and SFR remain robust, institutional capital reallocates towards living sectors, and operational sophistication (including analytics and research) acts as a force multiplier. Policy and rate uncertainty, demographic headwinds, and affordability crises are persistent but not insurmountable. With residential rent growth and home values expected to slowly trend above inflation for the medium term—and with supply-side pressures easing somewhat—the market offers both cyclical and secular opportunity for well-capitalized, research-driven, and adaptable players.

Market participants—owners, operators, investors, and policy-makers—must continually recalibrate strategies based on real-time data, granular local market trends, and evolving consumer behaviors. As always, the winners in this environment will be those who combine forward-looking analytics, operational excellence, and strategic agility to navigate uncertainty and capture growth across housing sub-sectors.

This report synthesizes real-time analysis and forecast data from the leading commercial real estate brokerage, research, and advisory firms, and draws on a breadth of public and industry sources for a multi-perspective, sector-spanning view of the 2025 U.S. housing market.

For further engagement or custom analysis, contact info@VassarCoProperties.com

Sources

Brokerage & Advisory Firms

• CBRE Group, Inc. (2025). Global real estate market outlook. https://www.cbre.com

• JLL. (2025). Real estate trends and insights. https://www.us.jll.com

• Cushman & Wakefield. (2025). MarketBeat reports. https://www.cushmanwakefield.com

• Colliers International. (2025). Global property insights. https://www.colliers.com

• Newmark Group, Inc. (2025). Quarterly market reports. https://www.nmrk.com

• Savills plc. (2025). Residential and commercial market analysis. https://www.savills.com

• Marcus & Millichap. (2025). Multifamily investment research. https://www.marcusmillichap.com

• Eastdil Secured. (2025). Capital markets intelligence. https://www.eastdilsecured.com

• Walker & Dunlop. (2025). Multifamily finance trends. https://www.walkerdunlop.com

• Berkadia. (2025). Investment sales and capital markets. https://www.berkadia.com

• Avison Young. (2025). Real estate intelligence reports. https://www.avisonyoung.com

• NAI Global. (2025). Global market snapshots. https://www.naiglobal.com

• Knight Frank. (2025). Global wealth and property reports. https://www.knightfrank.com

Data & Research Providers

• CoStar Group. (2025). Commercial real estate analytics. https://www.costar.com

• CBRE Econometric Advisors. (2025). Economic forecasts and modeling. https://www.cbre.com/research

• Real Capital Analytics. (2025). Global transaction data. https://www.rcanalytics.com

• Yardi Matrix. (2025). Multifamily and student housing data. https://www.yardimatrix.com

• Zillow Research. (2025). Residential housing trends. https://www.zillow.com/research

• Redfin Research Center. (2025). Housing market data and migration trends. https://www.redfin.com/news

• Green Street Advisors. (2025). REIT and private market research. https://www.greenstreet.com

Disclaimer

This market research report is provided by Vassar & Company Properties for informational purposes only. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Vassar & Company Properties makes no warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the data.

This report contains forward-looking statements and market projections based on current data and trends. Real estate markets are inherently unpredictable and subject to numerous variables that may significantly alter outcomes. The views and opinions expressed in this report represent our best assessment at the time of publication but should not be construed as investment or financial advice.

All statistics, pricing data, and market forecasts are estimates only. Regional market conditions vary significantly, and individual property values may differ substantially from broader market trends. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult with qualified real estate, financial, and legal professionals before making any real estate decisions.

This is an open-source market research report that may be shared freely with attribution to Vassar & Company Properties. No part of this report constitutes a binding offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any property. Vassar & Company Properties disclaims all liability for any actions taken based on the information contained in this report.

© 2025 Vassar & Company Properties. All rights reserved.